Lumber Production

Robert S. Plecas
National Post
March 1, 2001

Read Free Trade For Dummies

Lawrence Solomon, in Free Trade for Dummies (Feb. 6), provides a misleading picture of the stumpage system that applies to timber harvesting in British Columbia. During 1999, the B.C. forest products industry paid $1.4-billion to the provincial government in stumpage and related charges, This represents an average stumpage rate of $21 per cubic metre on a total Crown timber harvest of 66.7 million cubic metres. The average stumpage rate rises and falls in response to softwood lumber prices. At today’s low price, stumpage charges leave no profit margin to the producer. Logging costs, reforestation costs and timber conversion costs must also be recovered out of the lumber dollar.

B.C.’s minimum stumpage rate of 25¢ per cubic metre applies only to certain low grades of timber, and to timber whose health is endangered by insects and other infestations. If some timber is sold at the minimum stumpage rate, other timber must be sold at stumpage rates that exceed the average rate to, in effect, waterbed the cost impact, ensuring government revenues but impacting companies’ bottom lines.

U.S. lumber consumption has grown strongly over the period of the Softwood Lumber Agreement, 1996-2001, while exports into this market from Canada’s quota-constrained provinces have remained stationary. The share of the U.S. lumber market supplied from these four provinces has fallen from 33.4% in 1995 to 28.4% in 2000. B.C.’s market share of the robust 1999 U.S. market was down 20% over 1995. The SLA-exempt producers from Canada saw their production rise 59.9% during the same time period. Irrespective of what Mr. Solomon says, observers are looking elsewhere in Canada to determine U.S. angst with our softwood lumber trade.

If a lumber exporter pays a premium to the Export Development Corporation for receivables insurance, this may reduce cost of carrying an inventory of unpaid sales. But the insurance purchase does not reduce the cost of producing the lumber itself. There is no subsidy to lumber production.

Robert S. Plecas President, B.C. Lumber Trade Council

Posted in Forestry | Leave a comment

Toll today’s roads, don’t build more

Lawrence Solomon
National Post
February 27, 2001

Ontario Premier Mike Harris is revving up for what could become the biggest highway building program in the country’s history.

He’s expanding his very successful Highway 407, an electronic toll road north of Toronto’s Highway 401. He’s planning to relieve congestion on Highway 401, the world’s busiest highway, by building a parallel route north of Highway 407. He’s planning to help Toronto-area residents get to their summer cottages with a north-south highway. He’s planning to aid the huge influx of trucks crossing the Canada-U.S. border by building a major highway through the Niagara peninsula.

He’s promising to finance these new highways through road tolls. The one thing Mr. Harris has promised he wouldn’t do is toll Ontario’s existing highway system. That’s the one thing he should do.

Mr. Harris justifies his massive, multi-billion-dollar road expansion – part of what he calls making “tough” decisions – based on three of his government’s long-term forecasts. First, he predicts that southern Ontario will be housing two million more people – equivalent to the populations of Manitoba and Saskatchewan – over the next 15 years.

Next, he predicts that most of those two million will choose to live in the sprawling suburban areas surrounding Toronto – not within the City of Toronto and not within Hamilton, London, or other cities in southern Ontario.

Finally, Mr. Harris predicts that users of his new highways won’t balk at financing the highways through toll charges.

Predictions of what people will need 15 years from now can fail. Throughout North America, people have begun to return to cities.

But Mr. Harris is doing more than placing his bets on necessarily fuzzy forecasts of continued suburban sprawl. He’s also ignoring hard historical evidence from the financial world.

As Robert Muller of the J. P. Morgan Bank explained last month to the Transportation Research Board in Washington, D.C., the conventional toll-road-builder’s wisdom – that you can simply “build ’em and people will come” – has hit a brick wall. Mr. Muller examined the history of 16 U.S. toll road projects to find that all 16 had significantly lower demand, and lower revenues, than the transportation planners had forecast. Forecasts of more recent projects among the 16 – those since 1995 – were more accurate, but even there revenues fell short of forecasts by 50% to 80%. Part of the problem came from wildly inaccurate assumptions – such as believing politicized projections of where future housing developments will occur. The other part came from failing to realize that people drive much less when they must pay a market price for their use of the road.

Pre-building a highway is not being “bold” or “visionary,” as Mr. Harris claims, but being blind to financial risks. Tolling the existing highways, on the other hand, involves no financial risk. More importantly, Mr. Harris wouldn’t need to wait many years, until the roads are built, to relieve congestion – the relief would occur the instant tolling started.

If Highway 401 were tolled, for example, some vehicles which had been avoiding Highway 407’s tolls would immediately stop doing so, utilizing Highway 407’s extra capacity. Some freight would switch to rail from road, and other shipments would disappear altogether as purchasers became willing to pay a little more for locally produced goods to avoid paying a lot more in transportation charges. When people changed jobs, or moved homes, they’d more often seek a locale that minimized transportation costs. And car pooling would soar, as it has on toll roads elsewhere.

But while tolling existing highways is a no-brainer in almost all respects – it relieves congestion, it protects the environment, it increases economic efficiency and it avoids large taxpayer risks – it does require that Mr. Harris make a truly tough decision. He would face intense opposition from commuters who now depend on the free expressways, and intense opposition from those living along alternative routes, which would bear increased traffic as people tried to avoid paying tolls.

Fortunately, Mr. Harris’s preferred toll-road technology – electronic tolls such as those used on Highway 407 – provides him with a ready-made solution to political opposition. The electronic technology would allow him to exempt existing commuters from toll road charges for as long as they continue to live at the same address. As people did move over time, they’d tend to locate closer to work, contributing to a lasting solution.

Because changes in road use would now occur slowly, the neighbouring communities’ fears of spillover traffic would ease. While many would remain unsatisfied, their outcry would be as nothing compared to the outcry that would come of Mr. Harris’s Plan A – expropriating vast tracts of land, some of it through already suburbanized areas – from communities that would suddenly have expressways for neighbours.

“We must be bold … we must think of the big picture … and we must plan ahead,” he told a Rotary Club in the Niagara Peninsula Friday.

Quite right. Be bold. Think of the big picture. Plan ahead. But also do the right and courageous thing. Don’t pre-build highways at enormous risk and expense. Toll the existing highway system instead and discover – in likelihood – that Ontario needs none of the planned highways.

Related articles:
Toll roads v. the Canadian Accident Association
London’s green streets
Toll skeptics be damned: London’s rolling
The toll on business
The take from tolls
Don’t tax, toll: Presentation to the Canadian Home Builders’ Association
London unjammed
Don’t tax, toll
How the free road lobby led us astray
Toll road commentary
Road safety
How to cut highways’ human toll

Posted in Toll roads | Leave a comment

Logging for a Loss

Lawrence Solomon
The National Post
February 24, 2001

Logging a majestic stand of hemlock and balsam in British Columbia’s coastal rainforest costs logging companies $100 a cubic metre. Selling the hemlock gets them an average of $60 a cubic metre, the balsam gets them less. “We lose $40 on every cubic metre of hemlock that we bring to the sawmill,” explains Steve Crombie of Interfor, one of B.C.’s large product exporters.

Other old-growth species – when they don’t suffer from rot or other commercial defects, as old-growth often does – fetch more. Highly prized cedar is worth $150 a cubic metre, fir $120. But these two species represent the lesser part of B.C.’s coastal forests, and the lesser part of B.C.’s exports. Hemlock and balsam, in contrast, account for about 60% of B.C.’s entire coastal timberlands, and of B.C.’s exports. Most of B.C.’s magnificent rainforest, in other words, is being cut and exported at a loss.

Why does Interfor cut at a loss? It’s the law, explains Mr. Crombie, the company’s director of public relations. “You can’t not harvest the species” under the rules the government lays down. “When you have a Tree Farm Licence, you’re required to bring out a certain volume – it’s measured volume, not in value.” If Interfor displeased the government by only logging profitable stands, the government would slap it with penalties.

But don’t think for a moment that Interfor and the B.C. forestry giants would prefer to operate under a free market in which they could cut the few valuable trees and leave the rest behind. These corporations see themselves as allies of government in championing the public interest, and the public interest demands the trees come down – whatever the cost – to keep sawmills humming and forest workers employed.

“You can’t just pick and choose” without thought to the greater good, Mr. Crombie states adamantly. Without government regulations to force logging the forest industry would shrink because “corporations would just target the best stuff and leave the rest.” What’s needed, the industry believes, is a compensation scheme that allows forestry companies a fair rate of return on the good they do in harvesting uneconomic stands.

About the role of government, Mr. Crombie is correct. For decades, governments across Canada have understood that large logging harvests – the kind that keeps logging communities employed and their local politicians re-elected to office – would not occur without government intervention. Those least willing to log are individual woodlot owners, who often refuse to log, even at a profit. These private owners tend to like their forests undisturbed – they might be birdwatchers or hunters and fishermen, or they might irrationally like the idea of owning woodland that they might visit but once or twice a year. To change these recalcitrants’ lethargic values, and to encourage those trees to earn their keep, governments tout the virtue of the “working forest” to promote growth in forest jobs. Because slogans alone won’t persuade Canadians to change their values, governments corrupt their citizens with sweeteners if they’ll cut, and penalties – B.C.’s are among the most onerous – if they won’t.

Yet private landowners – whose more southerly trees tend to be far more valuable than government trees – for the most part have refused to be corrupted, leaving Canada’s privately held forest land largely intact. Even multinational forest companies – when the government relaxes its grip – have sold off forest holdings to those who’ll pay the biggest buck: cottage land or resort developers, private wilderness camps, sportsmen’s clubs, retirees who crave a forested lot with an ocean view, preservationist charities that accumulate land and just sit on it, and summer camps for children, among them. In the hands of such new owners, small areas might be cleared for a building here and there, and a few, high-value logs might selectively be harvested, but the trees are worth far more standing than as pulp. To add to the governments’ woes, they often face pressure to sell crown land to marinas and other providers of recreational services who have not the slightest intention of logging.

With the danger that trees might fall into private hands, with pressure from environmentalists to put more land in protected reserves, and with U.S. trade officials fiercely pressing for an end to subsidized logging, Canada’s forest industry could collapse, threatening the existence of forest industry towns and making loggers – who pull down some of country’s highest paid union jobs – an endangered species. To meet the threat that the vast majority of B.C.’s forests might be preserved for all time, British Columbia’s NDP government last week took decisive action. It created the logging reserve.

“Government recently achieved an environmental milestone by designating more than 12% of our land base for parks and protected wilderness areas announced B.C. Forests Minister Gordon Wilson. “It’s time to reserve land for logging in much the same way.”

British Columbia, total area 95 million hectares, contains 60 million hectares of forest land. Sixteen million hectares – including parks and other protected areas – are considered unsuitable or unavailable for commercial logging, leaving 44 million hectares of public and private land that the province deems working forest. All 44 million hectares, under the government’s plan, becomes reserved “to protect the working forest from ad hoc conversion to non-forest use.

“What this reality is, is a balancing piece to the protected-area strategy which we have now completed,” Mr. Wilson explained. “It’s important for us in order to have proper land-use planning, to have both protected areas defined.” Mr. Wilson’s working forests – defined as “lands where timber management and harvesting is a priority use” – would enjoy the same type of protections as provincial parks do. The legislation – a plum long desired by the Coast Forest and Lumber Association, an industry lobby – ensures that high-value land uses will not supplant the forest as feedstock for mills.

Many Canadians instinctively distrust Canadian corporations, and in the forest industry’s case they are fully justified. This industry has plundered the Canadian economy and environment for decades. But these Canadians’ instincts fail them when they put their trust in government – no force in Canada has been more rapacious of forests than our governments, who have owned 90% of the forested land, and reduced much of it to sawdust.

Throughout much of our history, our forests have had but one consistent defender: the private citizen. Individuals value forest land, not as an indiscriminate commodity, but for its unique attributes. In doing so, they bid up the land’s value, putting most of it beyond the reach of low-value commodity businesses such as logging. It takes a government, working on behalf of industry, to knock the price down again.

Posted in Forestry | Leave a comment

EDC responds to ‘Free trade for dummies’ by Lawrence Solomon

Jayne Watson, EDC and Lawrence Solomon
National Post
February 8, 2001

Lawrence Solomon’s column Free Trade for Dummies (Feb. 6) contains errors regarding Export Development Corporation (EDC).

EDC does not finance forest products to the United States. The services we provide for forest products exports are under our accounts receivable insurance program, which protects Canadian companies against the risks of non- payment from buyers. These firms pay premiums for this coverage (based on a risk profile) and these premiums are comparable to what the private sector charges.

His statement about taxpayers subsidizing the forestry industry through EDC is also incorrect. EDC is financially self-sustaining, operates on commercial principles and taxpayers do not fund its operations.

Mr. Solomon should do his homework the next time he yells “timber.”

Jayne Watson, Director, Corporate Communications, Export Development Corporation, Ottawa

 Lawrence Solomon responds to the EDC

EDC borrows using the federal government’s guarantee. It receives government bailouts. It pays no taxes. Jayne Watson may call that “self-sustaining” and operating on “commercial principles.” Most Canadians would call her claim bureaucratic double-speak.

Ms. Watson disputes my description of EDC’s role in financing exports. I wrote: “EDC finances almost four times as much in forestry exports — most of which are destined for the United States — as in aerospace exports.” She describes its support for forestry companies more narrowly, as insuring the companies’ receivables. But her distinction is more double-speak. In one case, EDC finances a U.S. importer’s purchase of a Canadian forestry company’s sales; in the other, EDC insures the forestry company’s receivables from that U.S. importer, allowing the forestry company to obtain the financing it needs for its exports. To compound the disingenuousness of Ms. Watson’s complaint, EDC sells its account-receivable insurance to exporters on the very basis that it will help them borrow against their receivables to finance their exports.

Posted in Forestry | Leave a comment

Free trade for dummies

Lawrence Solomon
National Post
February 6, 2001

How dumb does Prime Minister Jean Chrétien think President George W. Bush can be? Very, very dumb, judging by the arguments over softwood lumber that our Cabinet ministers and trade officials had been floating prior to Mr. Chrétien’s meeting with Mr. Bush yesterday. Only someone as thick as a plank could buy the lulus put out by our government leaders in what — at over $10-billion per year — is by far the most important trade dispute between the two countries.

“We think our producers are paying fair stumpage and we want complete and open access” to the U.S. market, Brian Tobin, our new Minister of Industry, stated with a straight face last week. Mr. Tobin hopes Mr. Bush cannot understand what his aides have surely told him — that British Columbia forestry giants such as Weyerhaeuser and Interfor obtain much of their lumber from the B.C. government for 25¢ per cubic metre of wood. A telephone pole contains about a cubic metre of wood. Those huge, heavily-laden logging trucks that leave Canada’s Crown forests each carry about 35 cubic metres. The 25¢ stumpage fee forest companies pay the B.C. government works out to less than $9 per truckload of wood.

In the 4th quarter of 1999, Interfor, one of B.C.’s biggest exporters, obtained over half of its lumber from the B.C. coast at that 25¢ stumpage rate. It then resold the wood for up to $300 a cubic metre. That’s fair — the free market at work — insists Mr. Tobin bizarrely, even if no private party would ever part with trees at those prices. Americans just don’t understand how free markets work. “We’re in a free trade era with our friends to the south,” and Canadians may just have to teach them a lesson, he reasons, perhaps by sheltering our lumber trade under NAFTA.

Pierre Pettigrew, our Minister for International Trade, thinks he can persuade Mr. Bush that Canadians are the free traders and Americans are the protectionists. The Canadian government and Canadian forestry companies are united in their belief that Canada’s fees are not artificially low, Mr. Pettigrew explains deftly: “There is a significant consensus in the country for us heading towards free trade in lumber.”

The forest industry — among the beneficiaries of Canada’s nearly-free-trees policies — agrees.

“This time we must fight back for free trade,” stated David Emerson, chairman of the Canadian Pulp and Paper Association and CEO of Canfor Corp, a Canadian forestry company that favours free trade if it can obtain free trees.

Mr. Emerson also wants to fight for “a level playing field,” by which he must be referring to the forest floor after his logging equipment has done with it. He can’t be referring to paying a free market price for our wood, as determined by an auction, as U.S. companies logging U.S. forest lands must. He also can’t be referring to the B.C. system of setting stumpage rates, under which the government often charges little forestry operations more for their trees in order to get away with charging the giant forestry firms less. Or to the Canadian requirement that our forests be cut, even at a loss, to keep forest industry workers employed.

Most of all, when Mr. Emerson speaks of a level playing field, he can’t be referring to the way Canadian forestry firms finance their exports to the United States. Canada’s forest industry has in its camp the federal government’s Export Development Corporation — best known for subsidizing Bombardier’s airplane exports when it isn’t subsidizing exports to Third World countries.

Although our government may think Mr. Bush too thick to know it, EDC’s largest customer by far — accounting for almost one-quarter of EDC’s business — is the forest industry. EDC finances almost four times as much in forestry exports — most of which are destined for the United States — as in aerospace exports. EDC-backed forestry exports, in fact, rival all EDC-backed exports to all Third World countries combined. The U.S. equivalent of EDC, the Ex-Im Bank, finances not a penny of forestry exports to Canada, Japan or any other developed country.

That Canada’s forest industry obtains magnificent B.C. trees at $9 per truckload is well known to the U.S. administration. After the story first broke in the Vancouver Sun last fall, forest interests on both sides of the Canada- U.S. border heatedly debated the fairness of the stumpage calculation system. Yet Weyerhaeuser and Interfor had both cleared their calculation method with the B.C. Ministry of Forests. It’s the best-known secret on the coast, explained Darrel Wong, president of the International Woodworkers of America-Canada local that represents coastal loggers.

The B.C. government sells trees at a price no individual Canadian woodlot owner would ever contemplate selling because it cannot otherwise maintain its forest industry — the industry is in decline even with the government giveaways. “It’s the only way we can stay competitive and the only way we can keep our costs in line,” explains Steve Crombie, Interfor’s director of public relations. If Interfor had to pay higher rates, he explains, the impact on the coastal industry would be disastrous. “You have companies that are barely able to stay afloat.”

Put another way, under a true free trade system — not the Canadian variety — the forest industry would contract greatly, to an economically rational size. Forests along the magnificent B.C. coast would be preserved. Provincial taxpayers would be spared the immense subsidies now required to prop up the timber companies. Federal taxpayers would be spared the need to subsidize forest exports through EDC.

And Canadians as a whole wouldn’t need to wonder just which side of the Canada-U.S. softwood lumber debate is as thick as a plank.

Read EDC’s response

Posted in Forestry | Leave a comment