Crazy eco-curve

Lawrence Solomon
National Post
December 18, 2002

Poor societies can’t afford to protect the environment. This emerging conventional wisdom, long embraced by United Nations agencies and conservative think-tanks alike, now has adherents among Western government agencies, among traditional economists, and among popular writers.

 

 

As put by Bjorn Lomborg, best-selling author of The Skeptical Environmentalist and a weather vane for coming environmental beliefs: "Environmental development often stems from economic development. Only when we get sufficiently rich can we afford the relative luxury of caring about the environment."

In his wide-eyed embrace of this view, however, Mr. Lomborg left his skepticism behind. He and the others have it backwards. Environmental harm usually occurs at an economic cost, whether in rich or poor societies. When we harm the environment, we generally harm the economy as well.

NAFTA’s Commission for Economic Co-operation, an often sensible official environmental watchdog, is the latest body to endorse this environmental canard. In Free Trade and the Environment: The Picture Becomes Clearer, a study released earlier this week, the watchdog tries to understand why the pre-NAFTA predictions of doom so spectacularly failed to materialize. Part of the answer, it has decided, is the Environmental Kuznets Curve (see graph), which peaks at US$5,000 per year.

The more societies earn, the more they pollute, until they reach the magic figure of US$5,000 per capita. After that, the more they earn, the less they pollute, the commission’s report states confidently, publishing the graph – shaped in the form of a perfect molehill – to give the report an air of scientific certainty.

Just as confidently, the commission explains that new research shows that the relationship between income and pollutants only applies to certain pollutants – NOx, SOx, and BOD – and only part of the time. The Environmental Kuznets Curve, it turns out, is reliable, except when it is not. At higher incomes, SOx emissions start to take off again – the molehill becomes a mountain. For other environmental worries – greenhouse gases, forests, habitat degradation – the Environmental Kuznets Curve doesn’t apply at all: Instead, the graph goes ever upward. Here poverty is a protector of the environment.

"What is clear is that some evidence supports the economic growth/environmental improvement view of the world, and other evidence clearly refutes it," the report says hazily, before turning to what is unclear. "What remains unclear is the question of linear causality: Has free trade been the cause either of environmental improvements or degradation? And does it much matter?"

The commission’s report – a parody of science – helps no one understand the cause of environmental degradation. For the benefit of the NAFTA commission, for the benefit of Mr. Lomborg, for the benefit of the conservative think-tanks, and for the benefit of all who want to understand the underlying cause of all environmental destruction, let me provide the long and short of it: An absence of strong property rights leads to a resource’s environmental destruction; the presence of strong property rights leads to its sustainable use. People tend to protect their own property, both by managing it sustainably and, when they have rights, by stopping polluters who would devalue it. The most polluted, most environmentally degraded countries in the world are those without property rights; the cleanest are those where property rights are most respected.

The United Kingdom, which transformed its economy in the 1980s and 1990s by privatizing much of its water, power, coal, gas, transportation, steel and other industries, illustrates the environmental benefit that results: Following the privatizations, the U.K. had the Western world’s most improved environment, with vastly improved water quality and vastly reduced air emissions. The economic competition that accompanied the U.K.’s free market reforms – because they rewarded industries that used resources most efficiently – added to the environment’s sustainability. The only countries besting the U.K.’s environmental advance, in fact, came from the communist East Bloc, which had even less respect for property rights and free markets prior to the collapse of the Berlin Wall.

In the absence of property rights, resources become subject to plunder, particularly where economic competition is fiercest. This ruinous union – typically private operators let loose on public resources – explains the devastation of Canada’s provincially owned forests, which are managed to yield short-term logging jobs rather than perpetual profits. This ruinous union also explains the plunder of our fish stocks. Last summer, knowing that Atlantic Canada’s once-great cod fishery might never recover from past overfishing, the government nevertheless decided to open the Gulf of St. Lawrence fishery from 6 a.m., July 30, to noon, Aug. 1, a period of 54 hours. The government’s logic? If the cod might never come back, why not get what was available while the getting is good. "We may as well fish them out if we are gonna have to close it up anyway," one fisherman told the Charlottetown Guardian. The fisherman was being perfectly logical, for someone who was deciding the fate of a resource he didn’t own. Had he, himself, owned the cod, rather than just having the right to fish it, his logic would have taken him elsewhere. New Zealand’s fisheries were also once threatened with overfishing. Rather than fishing them out, the country privatized them. Under private ownership, New Zealand’s fishermen police their stocks against those that would plunder them, and manage them for sustainable yields.

New Zealand’s fish stocks have soared while ours have sunk. To ascertain NAFTA’s effect on our fisheries, its experts searched for answers in "long-run estimates of the price elasticity of import demand," "maximum sustainable yields," and reams of data. They could have saved themselves the trouble by consulting the cod fisherman. "We may as well fish them out if we are gonna have to close it up anyway" provides a whole lot more precision than the Environmental Kuznets Curve.

Readers’ response

by Scott Vaughan, National Post, Dec. 31, 2002

Mr. Solomon complains that empirical evidence showing the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality is inconclusive, and therefore ought to be dismissed as "a parody of science." He goes on to suggest that efforts to study how economic growth affects environmental quality and policies is itself a waste of time. Neither poverty nor wealth have – according to Mr. Solomon – any bearing on the environment. That ought to put to rest the observation made decades ago by Indian prime minister Indira Gandhi that poverty was the single greatest obstacle to environmental protection. For the 1.2 billion people living in abject poverty, who are less inclined to take a long-term view about conservation as they struggle to feed and shelter themselves and their families, Mr. Solomon has a simple solution: Buy your land and take good care of it. Property rights is the answer to environmental degradation, since property owners always exert self-interest in favour of sound management.

If all this sounds too good to be true, it is, for three reasons. First, global public goods – clean air, migratory species, the global climate regime – don’t lend themselves easily to property rights in all cases. Biodiversity in particular eludes property rights, because the value of biological diversity – while substantial – is especially difficult to quantify.

Second, we have far too many examples in which clear property rights have coincided perfectly with environmental degradation. Both companies and individuals pollute their own lands, and those of their neighbours. Approximately $1-billion is spent each day in OECD countries on agricultural subsidies, most of which are destined for privately held farms. Similar subsidies are spent in the energy, transport and other sectors. The environmental impacts of subsidies include production overcapacity, and excessive water degradation and air pollution. The problem isn’t about the absence of property rights. It’s about economic policies of rich countries that consistently shield market prices from telling the ecological truth.

Third, property rights fashioned on industrialized countries risk undermining traditions of many developing countries, in which community rights have long preceded – and are far more sophisticated and effective than – our notions of property.

There’s no denying that property rights make a difference in environmental protection. Yet to dismiss empirical data showing the interplay between growth and environment, and instead embrace property rights as a panacea is a worse kind of parody, that of forwarding cookie-cutter solutions to increasingly complex environmental management problems in a quickly changing world.

Scott Vaughan, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.

Please also see Lawrence Solomon’s response, No property leads to plunder.

Posted in Natural Resources | Leave a comment

Wealth as indicator

Lawrence Solomon and Jerry Taylor
An exchange between Lawrence Solomon and Jerry Taylor/National Post
August 11, 2003

Trust this correlation

Mr. Solomon says, "they [meaning Cato among others] inadvertently endorse planning and regulation, not the free market and the common law, as a desirable medium for environmental decision-making." This is just plain silly.

 

There is an avalanche of material in the academic literature – ably summarized in Mr. Hollander’s book – that establish beyond any shred of doubt that economic well-being and demands for environmental quality are strongly correlated. Tellingly, Mr. Solomon lifts not a finger to challenge that literature – he simply condemns it for what it implies.

Despite what Mr. Solomon believes, one can indeed accept reality without necessarily endorsing socialism. Wealth does in fact increase demand for environmental goods and services. How those goods and services are delivered is another question altogether.

Jerry Taylor is Director of Natural Resource Studies at Washington-based Cato Institute.

 

Correlation does not equal causation

Lawrence Solomon responds: An avalanche of academic material correlating wealth and environmental protection does exist, as the Cato Institute’s Jerry Taylor states but, he will be surprised to learn, it is not summarized, ably or otherwise, in Jack Hollander’s book, The Real Environmental Crisis. Hollander, an academic himself, rightly ignores the material because it is based on correlations. Unlike proofs, correlations can be notoriously misleading. To quote one source, whose work Mr. Taylor and I both respect immensely:

"Correlation simply does not equal causation, no matter how impressive the statistics. Consider an epidemiological study published in Holland that found that keeping birds correlates with a sevenfold increase in the risk of lung cancer – a correlation three times more significant than that of secondhand smoke. Similarly, biochemist Bruce Ames of the University of California at Berkeley is fond of showing his students a graph with two lines representing data from 1950 to the present. The two lines almost completely match. The students invariably say yes, the two sets of data must be related. Yet one line represents the number of mating storks in Germany; the other, the number of live childbirths." The quote comes from a 1995 Wall Street Journal article, authored by Jerry Taylor of the Cato Institute.

Typical of the academic correlations that Jerry endorses (I will call him Jerry not out of disrespect but out of familiarity – Jerry and I have been on a first-name basis for many years) is a World Bank study suggesting that people in poor countries discount the effects of fecal coliform bacteria until their per capita incomes reach US$1,375 and then – BINGO! – they start clamouring for improvements. Other BINGO points come at per capita levels of US$3,280, when people become concerned about smoke and particulate matter, and at US$3,670, when sulphur dioxide emissions begin to decline. Now, that is truly silly.

The Real Environmental Crisis claims that "As people become more affluent, most become increasingly sensitive to the health and beauty of their environment. And gaining affluence helps provide the economic means to protect and enhance the environment." While this argument may seem plausible to ivory tower academics and Washington think tanks far removed from the struggles of the poor, the reality is very different in the trenches.

In the major environmental battles that have taken place in poor nations over the last quarter century, almost without exception it has been the rich and powerful who have destroyed the environment for personal gain or glory, and it has been the poor and downtrodden who have resisted the destruction. I speak as a founder of the World Rainforest Movement, who in the 1980s helped forest peoples in Malaysia and Indonesia defend their ancestral lands from crony capitalists, and as an employee of a foundation whose Probe International division works on the ground with Third World citizens groups. To my knowledge, no environmental group in the west, and perhaps in the world, has had a longer history of working with disenfranchised populations in Asia, Africa and Latin America in the protection of their environments.

In our foundation’s experience, the story is almost always the same. In the case of the Asian crony capitalists, corrupt leaders such as Suharto would issue their friends and associates deeds to traditional lands of tribal populations, whose customary laws – analogous to the west’s common laws – would be overridden without due process or compensation. In the case of Haiti under Baby Doc Duvalier, industrialists were given the right to build hydro dams that would flood the Artibonite River Valley, the country’s breadbasket, without compensating the small farmers whose land would be flooded. In the case of China’s Three Gorges Dam, two million Chinese are in the process of being relocated, without fair compensation and often at the point of a gun, to make way for a project that meets no environmental or economic test.

In truth, there are no grounds for the conventional wisdom among many conservative groups that the poor are less "sensitive to the health and beauty of their environment." Yet on that logic, many of these groups justify environmental destruction as a necessary step to affluence, after which, they convolutedly reason, people will have the wealth needed to protect their environment. In truth, the destruction of the environment is generally accompanied by the destruction of wealth: In all my examples, above, the wealth accumulated by the few paled next to the impoverishment created in the many.

What explains the strong correlation between affluence and environmental protection? Jerry provided the answer in his 1995 Wall Street Journal article, in which he quotes an academic who explains that scientists often are "committing a fundamental error" by considering a factor to be causative "when in reality we may be studying [the effects of confounding factors]."

In the case of affluence and environmental protection, the confounding factors involve property rights, free markets, and other attributes of good governance. Well governed countries don’t allow rich and powerful elites to run roughshod over the rights of the poor, and they do allow the poor to become affluent. Rather than wealth producing a healthy environment, it is good governance that produces both. Hollander discovered as much himself, and distanced himself from the myth that lives on in Jerry’s mind. Instead of emphasizing the role of affluence, Hollander concludes that "an environmentally sustainable future is within reach for the entire world provided that affluence and democracy replace poverty and tyranny as the dominant human condition."

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Urban Renaissance Institute, a division of Energy Probe Research Foundation. Probe International is a sister division. E-mail: LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com.

 

Read Lawrence Solomon’s review of Jack Hollander’s book, The Real Environmental Crisis."

Posted in Cities | Leave a comment

Lawrence Solomon nominated for book award

September 30, 2008

Energy Probe‘s Lawrence Solomon has been recognized by the Annual Heritage Toronto Awards with a nomination for his 2007 book, Toronto Sprawls

The Heritage Awards celebrate outstanding contributions by individuals and community organizations, as well as industry professionals and associations, in promoting and conserving Toronto’s history and heritage landmarks. Award recipients will be announced at a ceremony on Monday, October 27th at the historic Carlu.

This year, nominations were solicited from the public in four categories: the William Greer Architectural Conservation and Craftsmanship Award; Book; Media; and Community Heritage. Independent juries reviewed the nominations and recommended the award recipients. In each category (except the Community Heritage Award, which is a cash prize) there are two possible levels of award: Award of Excellence (the highest) and Award of Merit.

The Heritage book award recognizes well-written non-fiction books published in 2007 that explore Toronto’s archaeological, built, cultural and/or natural heritage and history.

More information about the Annual Heritage Toronto Awards and the awards ceremony is listed on the Heritage Toronto website .

 

Posted in Sprawl | Leave a comment

The Deniers, Part XXI: Clouded research

Lawrence Solomon
National Post
February 23, 2007

Jasper Kirkby is a superb scientist, but he has been a lousy politician. In 1998, anticipating he’d be leading a path-breaking experiment into the sun’s role in global warming, he made the mistake of stating that the sun and cosmic rays "will probably be able to account for somewhere between a half and the whole of the increase in the Earth’s temperature that we have seen in the last century." Global warming, he theorized, may be part of a natural cycle in the Earth’s temperature.

Dr. Kirkby was immediately condemned by climate scientists for minimizing the role of human beings in global warming. Stories in the media disparaged Dr. Kirkby by citing scientists who feared oil-industry lobbyists would use his statements to discredit the greenhouse effect. And the funding approval for Dr. Kirkby’s path-breaking experiment – seemingly a sure thing when he first announced his proposal – was put on ice.

Dr. Kirkby was stunned, and not just because the experiment he was about to run had support within his scientific institute, and was widely expected to have profound significance. Dr. Kirkby was also stunned because his institute is CERN, and science performed at CERN had never before seemed so vulnerable to whims of government funders.

CERN is no fringe laboratory pursuing crackpot theories at some remote backwater. CERN, based in Geneva, is the European Organization for Nuclear Research, a 50-year old institution, originally founded by 12 countries and now counting 20 country-members. It services 6,500 particle physicists – half of the world’s total – in 500 institutes and universities around the world. It is building the $2.4-billion Large Hadron Collider, the world’s most powerful particle accelerator. And it is home to Jasper Kirkby’s long-languished CLOUD project, among the most significant scientific experiments to be proposed in our time. Finally, almost a decade after Dr. Kirkby’s proposal first saw the light of day, the funding is in place and the work has begun in earnest.

The CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets) laboratory experiment, CERN believes, will show the mechanisms through which the sun and cosmic rays can influence the formation of clouds and thus the climate. The CLOUD project will use a high-energy particle beam from an accelerator to closely duplicate cosmic rays found in the atmosphere. This will be the first time this technology will be brought to bear on global warming, the most controversial scientific question of the day.

Also for the first time, very basic answers about the drivers of climate change may surface to dispel the general paucity of data on the subject. "By studying the micro-physical processes at work when cosmic rays hit the atmosphere, we can begin to understand more fully the connection between cosmic rays and cloud cover," CERN explains. "Clouds exert a strong influence on the Earth’s energy balance, and changes of only a few per cent have an important effect on the climate."

To accomplish all this, Dr. Kirkby has assembled a dream team of atmospheric physicists, solar physicists, and cosmic ray and particle physicists from 18 institutes around the world, including the California Institute of Technology and Germany’s Max-Planck Institutes, with preliminary data expected to arrive this coming summer. The world of particle physics is awaiting these results with much anticipation because they promise to unlock mysteries that can tell us much about climate change, as well as other phenomena. The world of climate science, in contrast, is all but ignoring the breakthroughs in climate knowledge that CERN is about to reveal.

In May, just months before the first CERN results are in, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the agency organizing most of the world’s climate-change studies, will be releasing its much-anticipated report on the state of climate science. Oddly, the IPCC report – now circulating in draft form – has in effect decided not to wait for CERN’s findings.

The IPCC draft report ranks the sun as an all-but-irrelevant factor in climate change. More oddly, it has come to this conclusion although it states that there is no consensus among solar scientists, meaning the IPCC admits it has no hard evidence to go on. Even more oddly, given the excitement and the anticipation that the CLOUD experiment is generating among the 6,500 particle physicists in CERN’s community, the IPCC has decided to diminish the sun’s estimated contribution to climate change by more than half, from its previously small contribution to one that is yet smaller.

Meanwhile, scientists who tout the manmade theory of global warming to the exclusion of others continue to disparage the CLOUD experiment. "This link is not properly established for the moment," said Dr. Urs Neu of the Swiss Forum for Climate and Global Change, a prominent critic. "The cosmic ray theory has been used by people who want to deny human influence on global warming."

Dr. Kirkby, in contrast, now 10 years older and wiser, has changed. In the past, he would unguardedly say: "There is certainly a greenhouse effect. The question is whether it is responsible for all the 0.6C warming in the past century, or two-thirds or a fifth – or what?" Now, to head off attacks, and controversies that might once again derail the CLOUD product, he hides his hopes and downplays the significance of what CLOUD may find: "If there really is an effect, then it would simply be part of the climate-change cocktail," a perhaps less naive, more politic Dr. Kirkby now states.

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Urban Renaissance Institute and Consumer Policy Institute, divisions of Energy Probe Research Foundation.

Related Articles

You still need your parka in Antarctica

The hot trend is cool yachts

The aerosol man

From chaos, coherence

In the eye of the storm over global warming

What global warming, Australian skeptic asks

Models trump measurements

Open mind sees climate clearly

Forget warming – beware the new ice age

NASA chief silenced

They call this a consensus?

Dire forecasts aren’t new

Discounting logic

Some restraint in Rome

The ice-core man

Gore’s guru disagreed

Science not politics

Fighting climate ‘fluff’

Little Ice Age is still with us

Bitten by the IPCC

Unsettled science

The heat’s in the sun

Allegre’s second thoughts

End the chill

Limited role for CO2

Look to Mars for the truth on global warming

The limits of predictability

Will the sun cool us?

The sun moves climate change

The original denier: into the cold

Polar scientists on thin ice

The hurricane expert who stood up to UN junk science

Warming is real – and has benefits

Statistics needed

Climate change debate

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment

Martin versus the old economy

Lawrence Solomon
National Post
September 26, 2003

In presenting his vision for the country in Montreal last week, incoming Prime Minister Paul Martin rightly extolled the New Economy and the importance of using capital efficiently.
Paul Lachine

He rightly extolled the benefits of globalization and the need for more Canadian multinationals pursuing more trade in a more competitive environment.

And he rightly ignored the Old Economy of farming, logging and mining because these uncompetitive Canadian industries, as we know them, have no constructive role to play if his Canada is to become "a 21st century economy."

Critics of Martin’s New Economy speech saw it as a series of meaningless motherhood statements in which he tried to be all things to all people by simultaneously promising fiscal discipline, new social spending and new economic spending.

Maybe so. But Martin did more than lay out a vision in which he rewards high-tech winners in an information economy. He also vowed to end support to losers.

"(Prudent fiscal management) means focusing on results, on outcomes, on improving programs that work and bringing those that don’t work to a deserving end," he stated bluntly. And without compromise. "The fact is Canadians have come too far, worked too hard and sacrificed too much to go back to the era of deficits."

While Martin didn’t spell out which failed programs he had in mind – the eve of his ascent to power is no time for dark news – the writing is on the wall. The programs that most spectacularly don’t work – that most threaten to return us to the era of deficits, and that are most deserving of an end – involve Canada’s resource subsidies, particularly to farming.

Among the international-governmental-financial elite, Martin is a highly regarded player. This elite believes – correctly – that agricultural subsidies are the single biggest impediment to global trade and the single biggest irritant between rich and poor countries, whose farmers cannot compete against the US$300-billion a year that Western nations lavish on their farmers. If for no other reason than to maintain his standing with these friends and luminaries, Martin would feel compelled, at a minimum, to root out the most egregious subsidies among them. After trade talks collapsed in Cancun, for example, Agriculture Minister Lyle Vanclief admitted that our extreme position on protectionism was untenable: "There is only one country in the WTO that wants zero changes in the over-quota tariff," he told reporters. "That’s Canada."

But Martin has even more compelling domestic reasons to get farmers out of the trough and into the modern economy. Canada’s near-Soviet-style agriculture is the antithesis of the New Economy: large-scale, polluting, reliant on massive doses of subsidized petrochemical inputs, and extraordinarily money-losing. For every dollar of income a Canadian farmer earns, Canadians provide close to four dollars in subsidies. Instead of producing high-value niche crops for upscale local markets, which farmers can do without subsidy, farmers produce subsidized, low-value commodities that our government then exports at a loss.

Does Martin have the stomach to take on Canada’s farmers and enforce a long-overdue restructuring? He is among the very few Canadian politicians to have had the guts to take on farmers in the past. It was Martin who in 1995 accomplished a feat many then considered political suicide – he abolished the Crow’s Nest Pass rail subsidy to western grain farmers and slashed dairy subsidies by 30%, cutting more than $1-billion a year in subsidies in what was the agriculture lobby’s first great defeat.

In a letter this summer to the head of the Canadian Federation of Agriculture, Martin put farmers on notice that "agriculture must be understood as a vital part of the ‘new’ knowledge-based economy and a key sector on the nation’s agenda for innovation, investment and growth." His goal: to end bankrupt policies that see farmers reel from one disaster to another and build a "less vulnerable and more profitable rural economy."

An advisor in bringing the resource economy into the New Economy is expected to be Maurice Strong, a close confidant and the same person that the Liberals called on in the 1980s to sweepingly restructure government by privatizing Crown assets. Strong, a renowned figure in international development who renounces foreign aid, is the world’s leading critic of the estimated US$700-billion in subsidies that governments worldwide spend on agriculture, water, energy, and transportation. The Third World needs trade, not aid, he and Martin both believe. Ending resource subsidies is thus a moral position that also does a world of good: It helps them, it helps us.

Little wonder that one of the few countries that has successfully slashed farm subsidies to help finance high-tech – Australia – has become a model for Martin. "Look at Australia," he told his Montreal audience. "Throughout the 1990s Australian companies invested enormously in new technology, much of which was produced abroad. With what result? Australia’s productivity growth rate was the second highest in the OECD, outstripping Canada’s and even that of the U.S."

Martin is not a small government neocon or a free-market ideologue, despite his promotion of free trade and globalization. But neither is he a stand-pat manager, content to follow an agenda set by pressure groups. Martin is a cautious planner with a vision for a new society that he has waited long and patiently to pursue, and with the dogged perseverance to see it through.

Posted in Agriculture (Rural) | Leave a comment